When Populism Meets a Paradox: A Hope for Democratic Awakening in Japan

In recent years, Japan has witnessed the emergence of populist parties that build their appeal around single emotional issues. These “one-issue” movements—whether focusing on education, pandemic policy, or national defense—have found growing support among voters disillusioned with the mainstream parties. The latest upper house election marked a clear turning point: candidates from such parties not only gained seats but also brought previously taboo topics, such as nuclear armament, into public discussion.

What is surprising—and deeply concerning—is that some of these newly elected lawmakers have openly supported Japan’s nuclear armament, describing it as “the cheapest and most effective” form of national defense. Even more disturbing, one lawmaker denied historical facts such as Japanese atrocities during the Manchurian Incident.

This brings to mind the Ostrogorski Paradox, which explains how voters, while agreeing with one party on a key issue, may still support another due to agreement on less important matters. Ironically, this paradox might now work in favor of democratic recovery. Many citizens who supported the populist party likely did so out of frustration, not realizing what its representatives truly stand for. If they come to see the deeper, more troubling positions these lawmakers hold, a moment of awareness may emerge.

And in that moment—when voters realize that “Japan First” rhetoric has morphed into calls for nuclear armament and historical denial—there may be a chance for rethinking. A chance for the public to reflect, reassess, and perhaps return to more grounded democratic choices.

In this hope, I find myself not despairing, but watching attentively.